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my basic thesis of how the AI bubble works: it doesn't work on market forces at all or it'd be dead already. it's an industry-wide Enron scam. they will all put in whatever money is needed to keep it afloat as absolutely long as possible.

(hence me picking 2027-ish for the final collapse)

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in reply to David Gerard

2031. Enron only collapsed as a reporter dared question it.. and so far that largely isn’t happening, instead outlets have hired dedicated AI reporters who reprint press releases like their jobs depend on it (they do)
in reply to Kevin Beaumont

@GossiTheDog fair enough, but enron otoh needed way less cash ingress to keep up the appearances, the slop people can't get away with just some creative accounting and fraud, enron style, they need money and with first signs of people with money trying to dump their future losses on retail investors already here, I don't think it will take five years until the end-game content.

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in reply to Emmanuele Bassi

I believe so. Arthur Anderson LLP (at the time the world's largest ever partnership) engineered Enron's finances by gaming partnership law to the max, by creating convoluted layers of dummy partnerships. The "A" "I" industry is also built on self-dealing, but seems to be structured as "strange loops." "Computer aided drafting" of contracts (boilerplate in general) and legislative language (cf. ALEC) is a pretty lucrative industry, as it's a LOT easier to obfuscate information than to unravel obfuscation. I suspect that >90% of what is called "consulting" is basically optimizing business processes for minimal compliance. I even suspect there may be some malice motive (as in malicious compliance) along with the profit motive.

The question is, assuming they are optimizing for bubble expansion time, how does one strategize against that? That someone wouldn't be in government, of course (at least not the US federal government). Someone who has resources to strategize against advanced optimization, but also has independence. Resources vs. independence has always been a harsh tradeoff, but the P25 clique of course is finding ways to make it harsher, raising the price of entry into cognitively powerful fields of work.

in reply to David Gerard

The fossil fuel industry has done this before ie keep money-losing startups afloat.

Koch Industries kept rideshare startups, like Uber, alive for a decade to thwart public transit initiatives.

jacobin.com/2019/08/uber-koch-…

The fossil fuel industry believes AI will thwart a fossil fuel phase out as people move to solar & wind.

Data centers chug enormous amounts of fossil fuel & push up electricity rates.
thehill.com/policy/energy-envi…

wired.com/story/trump-energy-i…

visualcapitalist.com/mapped-th…

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in reply to Nicole Parsons

2/

cbsnews.com/news/utility-bills…

The rapidly rising electricity rates are upping inflation and it's de-incentivizing central banks from lowering interest rates.

theguardian.com/business/grogo…

Restrictions on liquidity forces even more to resort to shady private credit schemes & risky tokenized financial instruments, also funded by fossil fuel fascists.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/20…

bloomberg.com/news/articles/20…

forbes.com/sites/jonegilsson/2…

Circular firing squad.

Cryptocurrency is globalized fraud.

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in reply to Nicole Parsons

@Npars01 i see e.g. Exxon Mobil made $33b profit a year recently. That's a lot, but just OpenAI needs way more than that just to keep its *current* promises. Can fossil fuel move the needle?
in reply to David Gerard

wired.com/story/donald-trump-a…

Fossil fuel & AI money is opaque since most of it is owned by despots.

They're very keen on preventing an urgently needed fossil fuel phase out.
apnews.com/article/trump-ai-op…

bbc.com/audio/play/w3ct71fs

Actual spending on AI is unknown. The malign influence campaigns promoting it are enormous.
nytimes.com/2025/10/29/us/poli…

The delusional spending may indicate plans to orchestrate a global financial crash or a world war before their chickens come home to roost.

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in reply to Nicole Parsons

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theguardian.com/us-news/2025/m…

Globally, the fossil fuel industry gets over $7 trillion in subsidies; plenty to fund AI fascist movements.
imf.org/en/Topics/climate-chan…

The BBB gives $40 billion in fossil fuel subsidies.
wired.com/story/us-taxpayers-w…

The Saudis promised $100 billion to AI.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/20…

Trump promised $500 billion to AI.
aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/22/t…

They intend to get this money from captive energy markets & taxpayers.

They think that money is infinite & never ending.

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in reply to Nicole Parsons

@Npars01

Good place to start when a govt says it's running out of money to pay for food aid for the poor is to demand it stop paying massive subsidies to the world's most profitable companies.

The subsidies violate capitalism's most basic theoretical tenet, they are blindingly expensive, they underprice a dwindling asset whose use is destroying the planet, and deprive govts of aid needed for worthier and, ironically, more economically efficient goals.

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in reply to Nicole Parsons

@Npars01
It feels like the despots are deliberately taking the world into an economic tragedy.
They want it ALL & we suffer the consequences.